טוני פרקר – בצניחה חופשית – ואיתו כל הספארס / מנחם לס

Russell Westbrook is breaking the scale. Just smashing it into little pieces and screaming to all of us, "Are you not entertained?"

Westbrook has become a fire-breathing monster right before our very eyes. On Thursday night, he tallied 39 points, 11 assists and 14 rebounds. We can quibble with his 13-for-38 shooting, but considering he created 26 points for others and the Thunder completely fell apart with him on the bench, that's like complaining a Lamborghini doesn't do well in the snow.

Westbrook is doing things right now that we've never seen. This month, he's averaging 30.4 points, 10.2 assists and 8.7 rebounds — all in less than 35 minutes per game. But relying solely on the box score doesn't capture his overwhelming brilliance on the basketball court. On Friday, the opening day of the MIT Sloan Sports Analytics Conference, there's no better time to walk through why Westbrook is having statistically the most offensively dominant NBA season ever.

Historical dominance

After your buddy is done mouthing off about Westbrook's cold shooting night and wailing about how Westbrook is "not a pure point guard," kindly remind that person that being a pure point guard is just a nice way of saying a player can't score.

Westbrook can do all things. This season, he's averaging 26.2 points per game, 8.1 assists and 2.1 steals — all top-five marks in the NBA. Plus, he's pulling down 6.6 rebounds per game. No other guard is averaging more than 6. He has posted four triple-doubles in the last two months, and three of those are 20-point triple-doubles. No other point guard has more than one 20-point triple-double this entire season.

But to fully appreciate what Westbrook is doing now, we have to dig deeper into the more advanced numbers. He has posted a 29.2 player efficiency rating (PER), which is second in the NBA. We'd be talking more about this mark if it weren't for fellow non-earthling Anthony Davis, who is registering an obscene 31.1 this season. How good is Westbrook's 29.2 PER? Of the 50 greatest players in NBA history who were named in 1996, 45 of them never posted a PER above 29 over a full season. Westbrook, as of now, is in the rarest of company.

And that's looking just at Westbrook's full season. This month has been historic. In the month of February, he's averaging nearly a 30-point triple-double (30-10-9) and he's doing it with an above-average 58.7 percent true shooting percentage (factoring in 3-pointers and free throws). Even with his 13-for-38 dud on Thursday night, Westbrook has posted a ridiculous 34.2 PER this month. That puts him on track to post the fourth-highest February mark we've seen since 1997, when the NBA's monthly splits began being tracked (tied with Dwyane Wade in 2007).

But what makes Westbrook's run so magical is its novelty. This is our first extended look at what Westbrook can do as the unbridled No. 1 option. And it's scary. For whatever reason, Thunder coach Scott Brooks almost never let Westbrook shine by himself. Heading into this season, 90 percent of Westbrook's career minutes came with Durant on the floor. In the past three seasons, that percentage was 95 percent. This season — given Durant's injury issues — Westbrook has played more minutes without his star teammate than with him, for the first time in Westbrook's career.

Not that there is an answer, but we never knew whether the Thunder were "Westbrook's team" because Brooks never allowed us to peek behind that curtain. As a matter of coaching policy, Brooks almost never staggered the lineups to separate the two. So this is the first extended look at the Westbrook show.

Westbrook, the creator

And yes, Westbrook's solo act is absolutely breathtaking. He's currently posting a 37.6 percent usage rate, meaning he uses almost 40 percent of his team's possessions via shot attempt, free throw attempt or turnover while he's on the floor. But contrary to popular belief, he isn't being a ball hog to the detriment to the team.

Did you know that he has the highest assist percentage in the NBA? Westbrook has assisted on 47.8 percent of his teammates' baskets while he's on the floor, the highest rate among all NBA players this season. For perspective, Magic Johnson, perhaps the best facilitator of all time, posted a career mark of 40.9 percent.

This is what gets lost in the Westbrook conversation. Westbrook helps his teammates immensely by collapsing the defense and finding the open man. It'd be one thing if Westbrook scored 39 points on 38 shots and didn't help others score. But he created 26 points off his 11 assists Thursday night. Earlier this week, he scored 21 points and pulled down eight rebounds, which is your average Blake Griffin night. But here's the thing: On top of that typical Griffin night, Westbrook dropped 17 dimes that led to 38 points. Who does that? Westbrook does.

We've never seen this magnitude of shot creation. ESPN director of analytics Benjamin Alamar, who worked for the Oklahoma City Thunder when they drafted Westbrook in 2008, looked it up earlier this week and found that Westbrook's combination of scoring and distributing is unmatched historically.

The updated numbers: Westbrook's 38 percent usage percentage and 48 percent assist percentage (rounding both numbers up) give him a total impact of 86 percent. In other words, roughly 86 percent of Thunder possessions with Westbrook on the floor end with either a Westbrook shot, free throw, turnover or assist. The next closest on record? That would be 77 percent, a far cry from what Westbrook is doing right now.

This is what we mean by smashing the scale into bits and pieces. I consulted Stats LLC for help in capturing Westbrook's shot generation this season. Stats LLC is the cutting-edge company that provides SportVU player-tracking data for all 30 NBA teams. The company can take this analysis a step further because it tracks not only every assist Westbrook makes but also every single one of his passes.

The key to SportVU data is that it includes the passes that lead to free throws. Westbrook creates easy points all the time that get missed in the box score. By traditional statistical standards, if Westbrook makes a nifty pass to Serge Ibaka on the block and the defense fouls Ibaka on his way to the hoop, Westbrook doesn't get credit.

So when we include passes that lead to free throws, what do we find? This season, Westbrook is creating a staggering 58.2 percent of his team's shot opportunities while he's on the floor. The next highest is John Wall at 51.6 percent. I, for one, welcome Westbrook as our Grand Creator.

Is he dominating the ball too much?

It's hard to argue with the results. The Thunder are 10-6 in games with Westbrook and no Durant. Little-known fact: The Thunder's offense has been sharper this season when Westbrook goes alone without Durant. OKC has scored 107.6 points per 100 possessions when the two All-Stars share the court this season. But when Westbrook plays without his co-pilot? Try 110.2 points per 100 possessions, the same exact rate as the NBA's most efficient offense (Los Angeles Clippers).

Part of that can be attributed to Durant's bum foot, but a Westbrook-led offense is a great offense. He often plays with Andre Roberson, Perry Jones III and Steven Adams, yet they somehow still churn out a healthy offense. And get this: With no Westbrook on the floor, the Thunder's offense falls apart, scoring just 96.1 points per 100 possessions, which would rank 29th in the NBA. That's the power of Westbrook, folks.

Some of Westbrook's high usage rate can be explained by the absence of Durant for a good chunk of the season. But a closer examination of the data run by Alamar shows us that, while Westbrook's game changes, keeping his usage rate high is good for the Thunder even with Durant on the floor.

First, without Durant, the more Westbrook shoots, the Thunder's offense improves. To be more precise, each additional Westbrook field goal attempt per 36 minutes adds one-third to one-half of a point to the Thunder's scoring per 100 possessions. There's a limit to that, of course, but generally speaking, more Westbrook is better.

Russell Westbrook and Kevin Durant

Andrew D. Bernstein/NBAE/Getty ImagesRussell Westbrook has been dominant both with and without Kevin Durant on the floor.

In games in which Durant plays, the value of a Westbrook shot diminishes, but it's still positive. According to Alamar's regression analysis, when Westbrook plays with Durant, the value of a Westbrook 3-point attempt disappears, but the value of a Westbrook 2-point attempt remains at about one-third of a point, and the value of a Westbrook free throw attempt increases to slightly more than a half-point on the Thunder's rate of scoring per 100 possessions.

Translation: With Durant on the court, Westbrook is most valuable being aggressive, getting in the paint and drawing fouls. But without Durant, Westbrook is needed as a shooter as well as a driver. So Westbrook, even at his high-usage rate and partnered with Durant, is adding to the Thunder's offensive efficiency. They need a lot of Westbrook and a lot of Durant to be successful; one doesn't need to defer to the other.

Bottom line: Westbrook is pretty much unstoppable with or without Durant. A force of nature on the court, he is aesthetically and statistically breathtaking. We'll hold the MVP conversation for another day, but for now, let's just let Westbrook be Westbrook. We haven't seen anything like this and we may never see it again. Then again, at 26, Westbrook is just entering his prime. Are you not entertained?


 

מנחם לס

מנהל הופס. הזקן והוותיק מכולם בצוות. מנסה לכתוב יומית - כל זמן שאוכל!

לפוסט הזה יש 9 תגובות

  1. אני בדרך כלל מאמין שדברים לא קורים בלי הסבר, ותופעה לא מוסברת, או שאין לה גורם ברור, כמו מה שקורה לפרקר, היא זמנית.
    פעם אחת נתקלתי במהפך פתאומי שלא ידעתי את מקורו והתמשך למשבר ארוך..
    אולי פרקר פשוט התעייף מהמשחק אחרי כל מה שהשיג ועבר.
    כמו אצל דרק רוז, שהפחד להיפצע פצע אותו לבסוף, אצל פרקר השובע מכביד על הרגליים וגורם לו לעשות הכל בטקט אחד יותר לאט ובכמה מילימטרים הצידה.
    או שזה רק משבר קטן וזה עובר…

  2. פוסט מצויין, מקבל כל מה שאתה אומר ותמהה, אחרי שג'וזף עבר את סדרת הטירונות שלו בנובמבר דצמבר לחודש ינואר טוב… בגיע הזמן להחזיר את ג'וזף למיקס בתור המתאבן הראשי

  3. פוסט מצוין. אין ספק שהנפילה של וני אחראית לרוב מה שקורה בס"א השנה. אני בטוח שטוני יכול להסביר מה קורה לו, אנחנו רק מנחשים. מאוד יכול להיות שזו נפילה שהוא לא יחזור ממנה אבל גם יכול להיות שאם פופ יוריד לו את הדקות הוא יתאושש בהמשך. אני אספיד אותו רק עם כל העונה תהיה שחורה כמו עכשיו (וגם אז לא בטוח)

  4. זה עצוב אבל נשמע נכון לצערי.
    כבר בן 33, לא ילד.
    עם עומס קריירה עצום יחד עם הנבחרת וכל הפלייאופים…
    בגיל כזה הוא צריך להיות הוטרן מהספסל ולא הדינאמו הראשי.

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